Today, President Obama announced and confirmed the leader of Al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, was dead. The "War on Terror" initiated by the United States has achieved major victory. Obama would not give up this great opportunity to increase his popularity. He specifically said that the operation was under his instruction.
I was at school gym. I watched Obama's speech on TV, thinking about the impact of bin Laden's death. Several college boys walk by, applauded, and shouted out loud. I did not laugh. I was pondering, like ten years ago, about how world will change afterward.
I still remembered September 11 2001. I was a sophomore. I came back to my dorm that afternoon. My roommate had a small TV in the room. I came in the room and he told me "World Trade Center just fell down". My first response was "Are you kidding?" I watched the TV and saw the tower fell down like a match. I was stunned. I told my self: this is going to change to world. The international relation we learn right now will have big change.
The world did change. The US soon engaged "War on Terror", within less than 3 month, the US attacked Taliban in Afghanistan, brought down its regime, established new order. Then the whole world looked at Iraq. The Bush administration made every effort to convince domestic voters and international allies that Saddam Hussein should be brought down or the Western Allies would be threatened.
The US established Department of Homeland Security. It organized all kinds of counter-terrorism projects. The US Senate allocate significant amount of resource to counter-terrorism. Many government contracts were issued to enhance national security. As Afghanistan and Iraq war went on, defense expanse increased. More technology were invented. Young men and women were enlists in military. More KIAs, more Purple Hearts, and more trained specialist of violence.
What would happen now as bin Laden is dead? Let's start from American politics. For a long period of time, capturing Osama bin Laden has been the prime objective. It is the goal, the final victory of combating terrorism. It is a revenge to those who harm American people. It is the demand for justice. To capture bin Laden has been the main reason for American public to support War on Terror. It also encouraged American people to agree that Uncle Sam should reach out the world. Because this seems the only way to prevent terrorist attack threatens American people again. American people believe that stationing troop in foreign country or interfering local politics is necessary to protect national interest. American government has a legitimate cause to expand its military strength to Middle East, South Asia and East Asia.
Bin Laden's death will undoubtedly weaken this legitimacy. American public will begin to question why their government spend so much money on defense and counter-terrorism. Of course, they will not ask the administration to cut off all those budget, but they may demand substantively restructure of those expanse. Obama administration will face enormous pressure, particularly when economy recover is still staggering.
If American power projection is constrained, international relations will be greatly altered. Iraq now has a fragile consensus democratic regime. Its national security and internal security heavily depend on American occupation forces. The victory of counterterrorism war delegitimize the existence occupation forces. Iraq and Afghanistan insurgents will not lose this great opportunity. In Asia, the US will continue pressuring Iran and North Korea, but the chance of invasion will decrease. Diplomatic warfare will become intense. Iran might continue its nuclear program. The new leader in North Korea may test American resolve to defend South Korea again and initiate crisis.
The allies that once stood together will become unstable. The US formed a couterterrorism ally because it needs access to key strategic base, airport, harbor, and finance to supply the war. Many countries exploited this opportunity to build relationship with US. Russia, for example, has claimed itself a firm ally in counterterrorism alliance. Its main purpose is to legitimize its use of force against Chechen insurgents. Indonesia, Philippines, India, and Pakistan all joined this alliance to seek US support. Sometime it was military support, including advanced weapon, joint operation, and military training; sometimes the support was political, the regime had to depend on US to survive. Britain stood with US for its national interest. France and Germany were reluctant but realized that they needed to participate in this alliance in order to take a share of trophy. As terrorism becomes a secondary concern. Those who depend on counterterrorism to strengthen its rule may collapse; those who is ecounterterrorism as a domestic cover will lose their credit.
The US interference to other countries' business has been under the noble cause of couterterrorism. This excuse will not be valid anymore.The US cannot easily cross border and intervene with military forces. State sovereignty will be re-emphasized. The norm of stable border will become dominant again.
So, am I suggesting counterterrorism will be abandon? NO, absolutely not. Counterterrorism war has been embedded in to security norm. It will always be there. And America is now under highest alert for a retaliation attack from Al Qaeda. Terrorism in the short term will become the main focus of all countries. But I will argue its importance will diminish. Terrorism was the primary concern for the past decade. It may not be the same for the next decade.
What will happen in next decade? The great powers may divert their attention from terrorist and insurgency, and turn back to the basic of international politics- the great power competition. Without terrorism as a major concern, states may care more about the traditional source of threat- the other state. They will keep eye on opponents' moves, trying to interpret opponent's intention. Step by step, they may go into the spiral of security dilemma, just like many countries have done before.
It is possible that the quarrel between PRC and US will be more intense in the future, especially on issues of Chinese military expansion. With Japan's power seriously compromised after the tsunami, no one can hold China's regional power in check. Russia may have more argument with East European countries and Central Asia countries. China and Russia may compete their influence to Central Asia. India and Pakistan argue over Kashmir.
After 10 years, today marks an important beginning of post-terrorism era. The security paradigm, as I see it, will gradually change. For those who study IR. we should be glad that we are witnessing history. The wheel of the world is still moving. If we stop, we will never keep up.
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